arndxt

thought to chime in on @crypto_condom post, i have a pretty bleak and bearish outlook that i thought to share as well some unpopular observations and asymmetric opportunities despite the bearishness in the coming months long weapons, short peace 👇 to set the context, we need to first understand the geopolitical situation, which is not in anywhere economically favorable first, its disturbing to see how the empire retain its hegemony over the world and its enemies, even beyond what it resources allows it to and yet still exerts enough influence on its vassals states and allies and turning that against to those defies the empire (enemies) i believe we will see war and if not rising tension in various parts of the world including the middle east, western hemisphere and even in east asia, and in order to to bolster military activities, united states and many countries will turn towards defense budget, this will lead to some opportunities, which i will share down below. second, economic data is has been bad, consumers are suffering with the recent PPI numbers, seeing a rise in 6% yoy, means that business-level prices jumped a lot, including energy, transportation, warehousing, and trade services were especially affected, eventually reaching consumers. - we are seeing elevated inflation, so i doubt we will see rate cuts anytime soon so we will see elevated and even increased interest rates for a longer time period. - the base case for fed is now a rate hike - inflation hits its highest level since 2023, the Fed is left with no option - consumer confidence just hit a record low and the labor market is weakening under the surface - rate hikes into stagflation are coming third, aside from all the AI bullishness and supercycle theories, which i have laid out in my earlier articles, i will present an unpopular yet asymmetric opportunity despite this bleak outlook: defence industry. as mentioned earlier, defense strategy will be the main focal point for many countries going forward. i say this so because, US have uploaded online its national defense strategy, germany has pass a military conscription law and US would soon pass a military draft in dec 2026. wars and tensions poses the biggest risk economically and yet a window of opportunity, why do i say that that could be biggest opportunity in the coming months or in the next year? - defense budget in 2025 was $960B, in 2026, Pentagon is asking for $1.5 trillion, massive 50% increase - US is not used to fighting long term wars, and it can no longer keep up with the pace of the war, munitions are running out, they will need increase home ground production - alot of such production was outsourced to china and its allies and its production at home grounds were clearly - right now US is stretched to thin with many military operations not just war, iraq, syria, taiwan deterance against china, ukraine, global naval control/safe passage and now iran, manpower is insufficient to maintain this - so they will need more young americans males to be in the military - on the contrary, this might in fact be great for the american economy, similarly to how russian flourished during its war - russia became a war economy where the state redirected more money, labor, factories, and political attention toward the military - this created a weird economy as the war keeps factories busy, wages high in defense sectors, and unemployment low but it drains labor, capital, and productivity from the civilian economy. - that is why russia could look resilient in 2023–2024, but now the war economy is losing momentum. russia cut its 2026 growth forecast from 1.3% to 0.4%, with post-war-spending boom slowdown, sanctions, high interest rates, and tax pressure. - the opportunity here being automobile companies that have been outsourcee for munitions productions today, we have the group of companies that dominate military production have have been doing well: - $LMT lockheed marting - $RTX rtx corporation - $BA boeing - $NOC northrop grumman - $GD general dynamics in lieu of the military production shortage, the pentagon have engaged ford motors $F and general motors $GM to expand military production, which are the new players that would partake in munition production. i particularly like to observe how the money flow, especially from the governments these guys never lose

thought to chime in on @crypto_condom post, i have a pretty bleak and bearish outlook that i thought to share as well some unpopular observations and asymmetric opportunities despite the bearishness in the coming months long weapons, short peace 👇 to set the context, we need to first understand the geopolitical situation, which is not in anywhere economically favorable first, its disturbing to see how the empire retain its hegemony over the world and its enemies, even beyond what it resources allows it to and yet still exerts enough influence on its vassals states and allies and turning that against to those defies the empire (enemies) i believe we will see war and if not rising tension in various parts of the world including the middle east, western hemisphere and even in east asia, and in order to to bolster military activities, united states and many countries will turn towards defense budget, this will lead to some opportunities, which i will share down below. second, economic data is has been bad, consumers are suffering with the recent PPI numbers, seeing a rise in 6% yoy, means that business-level prices jumped a lot, including energy, transportation, warehousing, and trade services were especially affected, eventually reaching consumers. - we are seeing elevated inflation, so i doubt we will see rate cuts anytime soon so we will see elevated and even increased interest rates for a longer time period. - the base case for fed is now a rate hike - inflation hits its highest level since 2023, the Fed is left with no option - consumer confidence just hit a record low and the labor market is weakening under the surface - rate hikes into stagflation are coming third, aside from all the AI bullishness and supercycle theories, which i have laid out in my earlier articles, i will present an unpopular yet asymmetric opportunity despite this bleak outlook: defence industry. as mentioned earlier, defense strategy will be the main focal point for many countries going forward. i say this so because, US have uploaded online its national defense strategy, germany has pass a military conscription law and US would soon pass a military draft in dec 2026. wars and tensions poses the biggest risk economically and yet a window of opportunity, why do i say that that could be biggest opportunity in the coming months or in the next year? - defense budget in 2025 was $960B, in 2026, Pentagon is asking for $1.5 trillion, massive 50% increase - US is not used to fighting long term wars, and it can no longer keep up with the pace of the war, munitions are running out, they will need increase home ground production - alot of such production was outsourced to china and its allies and its production at home grounds were clearly - right now US is stretched to thin with many military operations not just war, iraq, syria, taiwan deterance against china, ukraine, global naval control/safe passage and now iran, manpower is insufficient to maintain this - so they will need more young americans males to be in the military - on the contrary, this might in fact be great for the american economy, similarly to how russian flourished during its war - russia became a war economy where the state redirected more money, labor, factories, and political attention toward the military - this created a weird economy as the war keeps factories busy, wages high in defense sectors, and unemployment low but it drains labor, capital, and productivity from the civilian economy. - that is why russia could look resilient in 2023–2024, but now the war economy is losing momentum. russia cut its 2026 growth forecast from 1.3% to 0.4%, with post-war-spending boom slowdown, sanctions, high interest rates, and tax pressure. - the opportunity here being automobile companies that have been outsourcee for munitions productions today, we have the group of companies that dominate military production have have been doing well: - $LMT lockheed marting - $RTX rtx corporation - $BA boeing - $NOC northrop grumman - $GD general dynamics in lieu of the military production shortage, the pentagon have engaged ford motors $F and general motors $GM to expand military production, which are the new players that would partake in munition production. i particularly like to observe how the money flow, especially from the governments these guys never lose